Predictions
As more news comes down that another magazine is closing it’s doors I can’t help but think, “Did no one see this day coming?”. I don’t mean any one particular magazine, I’m just saying – in general – everyone had to see this day on the horizon when newspapers were (pardon the pun) folding right and left. The advent of the internet changed the world. The easy, inexpensive proliferation of its use ushered in a new way of life and with the introduction of the ipad and other pad and portable technology we are seeing a paradigm shift that will change the future of mankind.
As the reality of the recent recession set in I remember news outlets echoing the same sentiments, “as the markets level off and profits begin to rise the jobs will come back and, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.” All I could think then was, “the jobs will never come back. Those industries that were gutted when the market collapsed, they’re footnotes in history. Gone. Forever.” Of course I tend to be a bit over dramatic at times, but for the most part I am right. I’d say 95% of the jobs lost in the market will never, ever return. Look for new ones.
But how does this relate to magazines closing? It’s related in that a lot of people seem to be acting like there was never any writing on the wall, just the way millions of people acted when the housing bubble burst. The only way you could miss seeing these changes coming is if you were in a coma.
The paradigm shift from analog to digital brings with it change in EVERYTHING. Digital changed the postal service. It’s changed music distribution. Movie distribution. Television distribution. Sex. Community and, of course, print. After the pad devices hit the market it there was only a matter of time before print distribution would change. The first real changes were with newspapers (to be fair blogs started the newspaper’s downfall, pad devices just built the coffin and made the funeral arrangements). I always told friends and family that magazines would be next and it looks like I was right. Of course it doesn’t take a genius analyst to see all this coming, just someone paying attention.
So, as people are apt to do around this time of year, I decided to put some of my predictions for the next few years down for documentation and see if I’m as good as I think I am at seeing whats coming up or if I’m just pessimistic as some people have stated.
Let’s say that in the next five years:
- Newspapers will be entirely digital
- Magazines will be entirely digital
- Over half of all books read will be on a mobile or pad device
- 100% of music will be downloadable only
- Over half of all movie rental and sales will be digital downloads
- Over half of all video game rental and sales will be digital downloads or played on mobile or pad devices
- Public libraries will dwindle to just over half the number there are in 2012
- Crowdsourcing will start to take shape as a seriously considered business model in many industries
- Print distribution will be at 20%
- 100% of all books written will be for print and digital format (mostly digital)
- Regular CD’s will no longer be produced
- DVD’s will be on their way out
- Over 75% of all movie rentals and sales will be downloads
- 100% of all video games will be digital downloads only
- The crowdsourcing business model will make up at least 25% of all advertising and design activity in the world
- The melt down of the telecommunication markets will start to become apparent
- The telecommunications industry will be consolidated into only a handful of media conglomerates
- DVD’s will no longer be produced
- Print distribution, except for utilitarian purposes, will no longer exist – and what is left of the print industry will utilize mainly digital printing
- Blue-Ray Discs will be on their way out
- 90% of all movie sales will be digital downloads
- 100% of all movie rentals will be digital downloads
- Avatar based, digital space virtual video games will be a new and exciting emerging market
- All public libraries will be entirely digital based and online
- Crowdsourcing business models will be the new norm while all advertising and design duties are an offshoot of the media conglomerates
- Individuals working for themselves will make up more than 50% of the workforce
- Work-for-hire will be common place
- Long term, on staff, employment will be an aging business model on its way out














